In the FCS Huddle: Struggling programs must realize it's time

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02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New head coaches, especially those with struggling teams, are often quick to sidestep questions about win totals measuring their success.

You've probably heard the coach speak before: If the team gets back to the basics and does all the little things it is supposed to do, then the winning will fall into place.

Of course, if that doesn't happen, then the coach will keep his moves like Jagger the next time the media ask about a timeframe for winning.

It's usually the veteran coaches, and winning coaches, who are more open to wins and losses being a barometer.

Whether that's fair or not is debatable because, well, graduating players is an important measuring stick that too often is overlooked by sports fans.

It makes what football coach Rob Ambrose did in his third season at Towson all the more impressive.

Last year, he turned a team that was 3-19 in his first two seasons into the CAA Football champion and a Top 10 team. But he also had told his team in no- uncertain terms that it was time to start winning. He was even accountable publically ( http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/misc/haley/archive/haley_7_01_2011.htm).

By year three, the honeymoon is over for coaches. They have had time to get their assistant coaches, recruits and philosophies in place. The struggling ones must say it's time to start winning more.

Some coaches who came on board for the 2010 season have taken their programs to great heights in their first two seasons, such as Sam Houston State's Willie Fritz, who had the Bearkats ranked No. 1 last season on their way to a national runner-up finish; Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken and Montana's Robin Pflugrad, who have reached the national semifinals; and Bethune- Cookman's Brian Jenkins, Murray State's Chris Hatcher and Portland State's Nigel Burton, who have orchestrated turnarounds with their programs.

To a lesser extent, Bucknell's Joe Susan, Cornell's Kent Austin, Lamar's Ray Woodard, Tennessee State's Ron Reed and Youngstown State's Eric Wolford have brought excitement to their programs.

But others need to make sure year three is so much better than the first two - channel their inner Ambrose with his blueprint.

There's Princeton third-year coach Bob Surace, who turned in his black-and- orange stripes with the Cincinnati Bengals to return to the ones he wore in the Ivy League with the Tigers. Surace has played enough young players in the last two seasons for the Tigers to improve dramatically on his 2-18 record, although running back Chuck Dibilio, the league's 2011 freshman of the year, is trying to recover from a stroke suffered less than five weeks ago.

Saint Francis (Pa.) hasn't posted a winning season since 1992, but the Northeast Conference team appears primed to show improvement under Chris Villarrial, who is 3-19 through two seasons. With the return of running back Kyle Harbridge (1,430 yards, 14 touchdowns), it could happen.

In the Southwestern Athletic Conference, Southern took a big step in Stump Mitchell's second season, doubling its win total from two in 2010 to four. Meanwhile, Mississippi Valley State ended a 19-game losing streak in Karl Morgan's second season, although it's his only win in his two seasons.

Dale Carlson also has only one win in two seasons at Valparaiso, which has been the FCS' worst program recently. But the Pioneer Football League team has a young nucleus, including quarterback Eric Hoffman, that appears ready for greater success.

Nicholls State dropped from 4-7 in 2010 to 1-10 in Charlie Stubbs' second season. This year's schedule is front-loaded with difficult games, so the Colonels may need to win some games late in the season to show marked improvement.

One program that likely faces a rough going in coach Bill Curry's third season is Georgia State, which is joining the CAA after two seasons as a startup independent. After going 6-5 in 2010, the Panthers fell to 3-8 last season and now have a tougher schedule ahead.

Then again, it was easy to cast doubt on Towson going into 2011.

Most head coaches of struggling teams may talk about progress more than the wins. Even if it's just behind the scenes, it's time they demand accountability in the win column.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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